Rising Tensions Threaten Bilateral Economic Partnership
Policy experts have issued urgent calls for immediate diplomatic engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, warning that escalating tensions could trigger widespread regional instability and severe economic consequences for both nations.
During a comprehensive policy roundtable organized by Beaconhouse National University’s Center for Policy Research (BCPR) in Lahore, leading analysts examined the mounting cross-border tensions following Pakistan’s recent military operations targeting terrorist infrastructure within Afghan territory.
Military Action Signals Resolve But Risks Diplomatic Isolation
Participants acknowledged that Pakistan’s strategic military response demonstrates the country’s unwavering stance against terrorism originating from Afghan soil. However, analysts expressed concern that such operations, while projecting strength and strategic clarity, could inadvertently accelerate Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation and potentially strengthen Afghanistan’s relationship with India.
The roundtable concentrated on examining tensions that have intensified since the Taliban regained control of Kabul in August 2021. A primary concern remains cross-border terrorism conducted by proscribed militant organizations, particularly Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which continues to pose significant security challenges for Pakistan.
Internal Taliban Divisions Complicate Counter-Terrorism Cooperation
Experts highlighted the fractured nature of Taliban governance, with significant ideological rifts between the pragmatic Haqqani Network and the hardline Kandahari faction. These internal divisions substantially hinder efforts to address TTP activities effectively.
Dr. Syed Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi explained that Taliban leadership faces a strategic dilemma: aggressive action against TTP could drive militants toward the even more extremist Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Senior journalist Hassan Khan characterized this as an impossible situation that severely constrains the Taliban’s ability or willingness to neutralize TTP operations.
India’s Growing Influence Raises Strategic Concerns
Analyst Tahir Khan highlighted the expanding diplomatic engagement between India and Afghanistan, noting that recent statements by Afghan officials during visits to India have breached Pakistan’s critical diplomatic thresholds. Dr. Tahir Kamran provided broader regional context, observing that Pakistan currently maintains strained relationships with virtually all neighboring countries except China.
Ambassador Mansoor Ahmad Khan, Director of BCPR, facilitated the discussion featuring contributions from Dr. Kamran, Dr. Soherwordi, Tahir Khan, and Hassan Khan.
Asymmetric Economic Impact Threatens Afghan Stability
Participants emphasized the disproportionate economic vulnerability Afghanistan faces, given that approximately 80 percent of its international trade flows through Pakistan. Simultaneously, Pakistan confronts strategic risks if Afghanistan strengthens its partnership with India, potentially creating what experts term a “strategic encirclement” scenario in South Asia.
Confidence-Building Measures Essential for Stability
The policy dialogue stressed the immediate necessity for confidence-building initiatives, including reopening critical border crossings to alleviate economic pressure on both populations. Experts referenced the Doha Agreement, supported by Qatar and Turkey, as a viable diplomatic framework for facilitating future mediation efforts.
Analysts recommended that Pakistan develop a comprehensive, long-term border management strategy while expanding diplomatic outreach beyond Taliban leadership to include the Afghan diaspora and diverse Afghan civil society groups.
Path Forward Requires Balanced Approach
The roundtable concluded that while Pakistan’s military operations demonstrate national resolve, achieving sustainable peace demands a sophisticated combination of diplomatic engagement, enhanced regional cooperation—particularly with China—and nuanced understanding of Afghanistan’s complex internal political landscape.
The stakes remain extraordinarily high: failure to establish productive dialogue mechanisms could deepen regional instability, disrupt vital trade corridors, and exacerbate humanitarian challenges affecting millions across both nations.
