The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pressed Pakistan to explain and make public an $11 billion discrepancy in trade figures reported by two government entities over the past two fiscal years. The gap has raised concerns about the credibility of Pakistan’s official trade statistics.
According to government officials, data collected by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) showed imports that were $5.1 billion lower than those recorded by Pakistan Single Window (PSW) in 2023-24.
According to Express Tribune, the difference widened to $5.7 billion the following year. PSW’s figures, which cover a wider range of import entries, were also higher than the State Bank of Pakistan’s freight-on-board import data, which was used to calculate the current account surplus.
Officials briefed the IMF on the matter this week during discussions with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and the Ministry of Planning and Development. Sources said the IMF recommended that Pakistan adopt a clear communication strategy to address such mismatches and to build confidence among data users.
Transition blamed for mismatch
Authorities reportedly admitted to the IMF that data sent by PBS to the International Trade Centre in Geneva was incomplete, but maintained that this was not deliberate. They argued that the discrepancies were the result of the ongoing shift from PRAL’s outdated system to the more comprehensive PSW platform.
PRAL operates under the Federal Board of Revenue, while PSW is a separate legal entity largely staffed by customs officials. Unlike PRAL, PSW’s system captures a broader range of import declarations, including those under trade facilitation schemes, which PRAL missed.
An internal review revealed that PBS had relied on a programmed query for trade data that had not been updated since 2017. This caused consistent underreporting, which became more severe in recent years.
Impact on sectors
The textile sector was hit hardest by underreporting, with nearly $3 billion in imports going unrecorded. Metal imports were also understated by about $1 billion in 2023-24.
The IMF has asked Pakistan to revise and update the past figures and share them not only with the Fund but also with the public and domestic stakeholders, including the media.
However, officials at PBS and the Ministry of Finance are hesitant to disclose the corrections, fearing they could alter export balances and affect economic growth estimates.
For now, the IMF has underlined the need for greater transparency. It warned that without a clear explanation of past errors and updated reporting practices, doubts about the accuracy of Pakistan’s official statistics will persist.
